Doing Some Math

There is a local exchange here -- a place where people can trade things. Angel & I aren't members, but we know a few members and have even attended a potluck. The exchange has a name: "The Fourth Corner". Why is it named that, you ask? It's because we're at the "fourth corner" of the lower 48 states.

We are just north of the 48th parallel.

Yet even in this place, infamous for overcast skies and rainy weather, a 4 kW PV array, statically mounted on a south-facing roof, an produce a decent amount of electrical energy. In fact, in the summer, the array can produce something equivalent to well over 40% of the needs of a 2200 square foot, all-electric house.

We're talking electric central heat, electric hot water, electric cook top and ovens, and an electric clothes dryer here. Again: North of the 48th parallel. 4 kW PV array. Fourth corner of the lower 48. Lots of cloudy days.

Oh, and we've got some neighbors to the south who have some giant trees that shade the array in the winter time. Only now, just past the Spring Equinox, does the sun clear the trees for essentially the whole day.

That's the background. Let's think about it a little bit.

Last year (2008), that PV system cost about $27K. That's the "out the door" price - hooked to the grid, permits, inspections, all the right stuff. Prices on such systems are falling as more PV cell capacity comes on line.

So at 2008 prices, we could put one million such systems on one million US roofs for $27B US dollars. We would probably want to focus on the million best roofs... south facing, unshaded, etc. (sadly) probably not north of the 48th parallel.

And to be fair, we'd probably want to distribute the savings in some equitable way. We're not AIG or Merrill Lynch, after all.

Imagine what an economic stimulus one million solar roofs could be. Imagine the local jobs for electricians. We'd need licensed installation companies. That means more training & certification. We'd need some standard, approved rooftop designs at specified price points. Fraud is managed by requiring installers to call for inspection and have their work signed off by certified inspectors. Once the work is signed off, the installers are paid.

Imagine the energy savings for the US economy. Imagine the reduction in carbon footprint.

With those volumes, and the right incentives, the price might drop to something closer to $15K to $20K per system.

And that might allow us to expand the program by another 10%. To do this thing right, we'd want to stretch it over 5 to 7 years. That makes it a relatively small annual budget hit.

Imagine the payoff for our country over the subsequent (minimum) quarter century life expectancy of these systems.

We could do this. Shucks, we should already be doing it.